The global PC market is experiencing a severe downturn amid the fading of the coronavirus pandemic and the global economic crisis. Counterpoint Research analysts believe that in 2022, PC shipments fell by 15% and this year the trend will continue. However, analysts expect Arm-based laptops to maintain solid demand in the coming quarters, driven by narrowing the performance gap with x86-based counterparts, as well as Apple’s MacBook.
The American company Apple leads the Arm-computer segment, helped by the launch of its own line of Arm-processors in 2020. Gradually, applications for iPhone and iPad moved to macOS, which also contributed to the growth in the popularity of laptops with Arm processors. Since the release of the Apple M1 chip in 2020, the market share of Arm-based laptops has grown from less than 2% to more than 12% at the end of 2022. At the same time, Apple dominates the segment with a market share of 90%.
Qualcomm and MediaTek, the largest suppliers of mobile processors, are also showing interest in building Arm-based computer chips. Since both companies are manufacturers of mobile processors, and therefore are familiar with the Arm ecosystem, it should be relatively easy for them to create chips for laptops or computers. Although the example of Qualcomm suggests the opposite — the company has long been trying to master the PC segment, but so far has not achieved much success. Counterpoint analysts expect Qualcomm and MediaTek to introduce competitive Arm processors for laptops no later than 2024.
Counterpoint expects the share of Arm laptops to grow to 25% by the end of 2027. At the same time, Intel, as the largest supplier of processors for computers, will lose up to 10% of its market share. Despite this, the company will continue to dominate the PC market with a share of more than 60% — AMD will remain less than 15%.
Counterpoint predicts that the market share of Arm-based computers, especially laptops, will continue to grow in the coming years. The explosion in demand for Chromebooks in 2020 was just the beginning. The rate of penetration into the Arm ecosystem is also projected to increase as chip vendors actively partner with OEMs to create new offerings. Growing consumer awareness of the competitiveness of the Arm platform could also help expand market share. Ultimately, Counterpoint believes that by 2025, the share of Arm laptops will exceed 21% of the total number of laptops supplied to the market.
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